[twistedsymphony]

Well, so far it seems to be fetching about $120 on eBay which is a pretty good return on investment.

You can speculate all you want but the best way to estimate the value down the road is to look at similar items Historically

Forza 3 LCE is getting about $30 used and $60 new.
Forza 2 LCE is rare enough that there isn't a single NTSC copy for sale on eBay.

Keep in mind that Forza 4 LCE is the first one to include a SteelBook which have a habit of dramatically increasing the desirability and value of a CE.

It doesn't really matter how many are produced what matters is the ratio of the number produced vs the demand. and so far that is in the favor of the collector.

Personally I don't really care if this release increases or decreases in value, I'm a fan of the Forza series and I bought it purely for personal enjoyment.

Anyone buying this game in hopes it will appreciate in value is IMO a fool, as most of the indicators point to it not doing so
-big name publisher
-very popular series
-widespread release
-type of game that will rarely get played once a sequel is released.

^all of those tend to make CEs drop in value A LOT

About the only thing going for it is the SteelBook and the fact that it seems MS underestimated demand.

Though I still doubt MS will be making more of them. That "shipment" Amazon received could simply be a re-allocation from one of their sister stores (which happens quite a bit). Think about it... do you really think Best Buy would have caused themselves so much negative publicity and paid their customers with $20 gift cards if there was even a chance of getting a 2nd shipment?