Great post Gemini-Phoenix, first got to say that everything you've said is completely true.
I think the deeper questions might lie in why the publishers and retailers are doing what they're doing? Rather than if they think it's fair and not confusing to the customer.
Every retailer wants to be able to boast an exclusive on a big release title, so when these games are being developed the big stores will already be negotiating deals in order to obtain an exclusive.
The decision on if that retailer gets an exclusive (be it D/L content or a collectors) is often dependant on the popularity of the game, how many they expect to sell and the amount the retailer is offering to pay for the exclusive.
GAME, PLAY and HMV in the UK were one of the first I think that started doing it in GB. They've all had varied success with it. It seems that even Tesco and Sainsburys (in UK) are wanting a piece of the pie as well now.
GAME had things like the God of War 3 Pandora’s box sell very quickly. This was an exclusive. But they also had the GT5 collectors which had to be reduced down from £150 to £50 before they could get rid of all the stock.
PLAY did really well with the Infamous 2 Hero Edition which sold out quickly. Although weirdly they popped up again early this year on the site??? it’s like they still have the production line open or something?
HMV IMO haven't done as well on their two biggest National exclusives, which were the Modern Warfare 2 Night Vision Goggles and the Killzone 3 Helghast Edition.
I think there is a good theory to which ones sell out and which ones will be left on the shelves after release but its not a failsafe rule. Sony exclusive games that have collectors are usually in my opinion either the most sought after or the least made. Whichever way you look at it... find out about a Sony Exclusive 2 -3 weeks late and chances are you'll be looking on eBay for a purchase (unless its £150 and called GT5 Collectors Ed.).
When one retailer in a region secures rights, it can mean rarity, but this seems to depend on the retailer’s greed or the publisher’s demands, as the retailer will need to forecast how many they will sell, so that they can negotiate a deal. If say, HMV wanted to sell Modern Warfare 2 Prestige exclusively, Activision are likely to say, well we know that we are going to make a lot of sales on this, so if you want it exclusively you will need to buy say 200,000 of them at £50 if you want the rights. At this point you also get players like GAME and PLAY etc. bidding for the rights.
When it's all said and done HMV could be landed with 200,000 prestige of Xbox and ps3, which now have to be sold at a certain price. The greedy bit is when these still sell-out before release and then HMV asks the manufacturers to make even more! (Which happened).
There are many other factors and despite all of them I am like you and have been burnt by Murphy's Law too many times. So as a standard you end up pre-ordering and buying all of them!! But this is part of the problem as we are continuing to feed the greed of the publishers and retailers.
I personally don't mind bigger collector editions if they are done right, I recently got the Ayrton Senna Collectors and I'm glad it's as big as it is, because it really looks amazing in a cabinet. I'm also glad the skyrym collectors was big (not too glad about it going down so cheaply so quickly mind).
I think we are also to blame because as collectors we seem to have lost the ability to know what collector editions are good and bad, and which one's are severly overpriced. I don't wish to upset anyone on here but I still can't see what all the fuss is on the recent MGS collectors, if this had come out 2 years ago, nobody would have bought it for the price it is? Zavvi have pulled a clever stunt by originally getting internet publicity on the 'exclusive' edition selling out, and then have ended up striking a deal with Konami (now they know loads of people are interested and comitted), and selling an unknown amount at an inflated price! The price it's being sold for, is only worth it, if its numbers are limited, and Zavvi know this, and that's why they've given ambiguous info on their site. If it truelly is limited to 4000, then I stand corrected and those who've got them are lucky indeed.
I said after SKyrm that I wasn't going to buy more than 3 collectors in 2012??? but like a typical collector, my talk is tough but my actions have already got me the Soul Calibur collectors and pre-orders on just about every other thing coming....