price decline of ce's

[twistedsymphony]

Originally Posted by Sylfaris

Hey folks,

just thought about some ce's; wether they'r wotrh buying or not. What do you guess? There are some examples:

- Alien: Colonial Marines - now counts 99 ? i guess this prive will drop to at least 60 ? (amazon.de) an there will be a lot available in one year.

- Tombraider CE - now counts 99 ? but i think it will also drop for about the half and of course it will available in one year.

- God of War: Ascension CE: as most of the GoW games proved they will raise in price and wont be available in the future for less than teir starting price

What do you guess? (Well you could make a game out of it, or take this as a serious thread - your choice)

Sometimes i'm still not sure if it's worth buying it @ release . . .

Things that cause value to go up:
-low production numbers (the lower the production the higher the value)
-exclusivity from a specific store (especially if it's online order only)
-if the game is in the RPG Genre or Adventure Genre
-if it is for a new franchise that has the potential to increase in popularity after it is released

things that cause the value to go down:
-if the CE is available at every store (this usually indicates that production will be very high)
-if the CE is a for a franchise that is very popular and has sold very well in the past and production is NOT limited (this usually indicates that they will overproduce the CE)
-if the CE is for a genre or franchise that gets a new release just about every year (this usually indicates that the uniqueness of the CE will wear off quickly and also devalue)
-if the packaging or items aren't very special (ie: regular plastic case, paper sleeves for bonus discs, or DLC instead of physical content)


Given the above, I would say most of the releases you listed will either be cheaper after release or hover right around release value for a while.

99% of value is based on this equation:

value = (popularity)/(quantity available)

most of what I listed above are the factors that effect quantity or popularity... for instance if a release is only available via pre-order through 1 store, then the quantity is going to be lower even if it's not intentionally limited because not everyone will know about the release...

Similarly, if a new franchise is released a lot of people might hold-off on buying until reviews have come up, by this time production of the CE has stopped and if the game becomes popular the popularity will skyrocket while the quantity remains stagnant, thus increasing the value. This is also why games in the RPG/Adventure genre are good bets for increased value, because 5 years down the road people will still be going back to play the old releases... and the popularity continues to grow over a long period of time. Compare that with a sports game, no one gives a shit about FIFA 2005 anymore... maybe there was a super limited release but no new fans are going back and playing it...

[Xmo]

Originally Posted by Twistedsymphony

Things that cause value to go up:
-low production numbers (the lower the production the higher the value)
-exclusivity from a specific store (especially if it's online order only)
-if the game is in the RPG Genre or Adventure Genre
-if it is for a new franchise that has the potential to increase in popularity after it is released

things that cause the value to go down:
-if the CE is available at every store (this usually indicates that production will be very high)
-if the CE is a for a franchise that is very popular and has sold very well in the past and production is NOT limited (this usually indicates that they will overproduce the CE)
-if the CE is for a genre or franchise that gets a new release just about every year (this usually indicates that the uniqueness of the CE will wear off quickly and also devalue)
-if the packaging or items aren't very special (ie: regular plastic case, paper sleeves for bonus discs, or DLC instead of physical content)

nice collecting 101 tips.